شناسایی عوامل کلیدی خیزش در خاورمیانه عربی با استفاده از دلفی فازی

The Arabic Middle East is a region full of instabilities. The coup d’état, war, civil war, riot, strike and terror are some important kinds of these instabilities.Since 2010, not only the quantity and diversity of these changes, but also their risks have been increased.The uprising is one of these instabilities which has been occurred many times in recent years. So, the reasons of these occurrences have always been an important question. Despite of the similarities of this instability and the revolution, it is different. On the other hand, fuzzy methods give us powerful measures to analyze these instabilities. The article by reviewing the Arabic Middle East’s upheavals which have happened after collapse of the Soviet ::::::::union:::::::: and by using the Fuzzy Delphi technique tries to find the main and key factors of the uprisings. At the end, 6 key factors were found.These are only 20% of all factors, but have an 80% influence on the happening of civil war. The matter has specially functional advantages since time and financial limitations for actors prevent them to control all the factors effectively. So, governmental and non-governmental actors are searching key factors to reduce costs and achieve the most efficiency.